Christopher's Blue Collar Lunch Pail Pick

     As I was putting my turkey sandwich in my Charlie Brown lunch pail this morning, I looked at the decal on the front. It was Charlie Brown, midair as Lucy is pulling the football away from him. I never understood why Charlie always fell for that trick. In a way most sports bettors fall for "tricks" by playing inflated lines. Odds makers play the role of Lucy daily. What I try to do is warn you ahead of time before the ball, and your balance is pulled from underneath you. Yesterday 8 of the 14 underdogs covered in MLB. This is not a isolated incident. Bettors see a great pitcher against a sub par one, and assume laying -180 on the favorite is a good investment. I have said it before, and I feel it is worth repeating. There is more to baseball than starting pitching. Before you run to that football and make what you perceive an easy kick, check to see who is holding it. That kick may not be as easy as it seems.

     In the battle of the AL Central, the Kansas City Royals are facing the upstart Cleveland Indians. These two teams have flip flopped wins in all their meetings this season. If that pattern is an indicator, the Royals are the winning team today. Now, I would never use that pattern as a sole reason to bet on any team. My rationale on paying Kansas City today lies more in the win loss record and ERA of their starting pitcher Jeff Francis. Francis is win less this year. Not a good sign. His ERA is only 4.03 though. A respectable ERA pitching in the American League. Now I know what I said about relying solely on starting pitching to form a play. I am also taking into account the offense of Kansas City, which is 7th in the league. Not to shabby. Kansas City faced the Cleveland Indians Josh Tomlin 5 days ago, and with familiarity this should lead to an easier time at the plate for the Royals. With some run support, Jeff Francis should get his first win of the season. My free play of the day is Kansas City +130

4-6-1  -161 UNITS (All plays are 100 Units)