4/18/2011 Play

     What a day for underdogs in both basketball and baseball yesterday. Chalk bettors were left scratching their heads as all four road dogs covered in the NBA, and 9 of the 15 positive money line teams won in MLB. In fact, if you bet all dogs in MLB yesterday at 100 units a play, you were looking at a profit of +535 units. Not to shabby for a days work. I bring this up because some people I know bet baseball solely on the pitching match up. Yes, pitching match ups are a general indicator of what the money line will be, but what many casual bettors overlook is that starting pitchers do not pitch as long now as they did 20 years ago. Today's pitching roles are more specialized. Many times you will see two teams tied going into later innings and both starting pitchers taken out of the ballgame. If you had taken a team -160, you have now lost a considerable amount of value on your wager. Do not be scared to take an underdog if they have a respectable road record or decent bullpen. These two keys factor in many ball games.

     Coffee is the beverage of choice today in Boston as the annual Patriots Day game is played. I got up extra early today on the west coast just to share with my readers what I think is the play of the day. This Boston/Toronto match up is intriguing to me. Traditionally, on Patriot Day games, we see quite a bit of offense. The last 5 years, the run totals on the games have been 11,9,13,13, and 10. We also have Matzusaka on the mound for the Red Sox with his sky high ERA of 12.86. Throw in two teams that have potentially explosive offenses, and you would think the OVER is the play. Not in this guy's eye. Sometimes, intangibles play a role in deciding who or what to bet on. Dice-K has always been a pitcher who pitches up or down to the level of his competition. Today he faces R. Romero for Toronto. With an ERA of 1.66 including a complete game, he has pitched extremely well. Dice-K knows that with another bad outing, he can say goodbye to his starting pitcher role. The Red Sox offense has shown signs of life, but not enough to expect an explosion against a pitcher like Romero. I am also intrigued by the total being 9.5. I found that line to be a bit off. I expected at least 10.5 when I was going over stats. Traditionally, when I bet, if I see a line to good to be true, it usually is. This is why I am making Boston/Toronto UNDER 9.5 as my play of the day. Good luck all. Lets cash some tickets!!


(0-1-0 -110 UNITS)